Many of us heard about the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Report that was published in August this year. Its depiction of climate change as a widespread, rapid, and intensifying phenomenon (some trends of which are now irreversible – at least during the present time frame) seems to have shaken many people up, although it really isn’t telling us anything fundamentally new. Emissions are still rising, and the planet is still heating. We still need to decarbonize the economy as a matter of urgency. It’s a report that is, in many ways, merely stating the obvious. More distressingly, it is not defying the current ideological paradigm (and, by extension, the political, social and economic systems) that have led to the climate crisis. However, the Report has potential to have an important impact in our state of affairs – we’ll show you why.

Overview

 The IPCC is the body of the world’s leading climate experts, formed in 1988 and charged with preparing comprehensive reports on the state of our knowledge of the climate. The IPCC does not conduct its own original research, but rather produces comprehensive assessments which build on previous reports, highlighting the latest knowledge.

The latest IPCC Report was prepared by 234 scientists from 66 countries, on the basis of 14 000 scientific publications. It highlights that human influence has warmed the climate at a rate that is unprecedented in at least the last 2,000 years.

In 2019, atmospheric CO2 concentrations were higher than at any time in at least 2 million years, and concentrations of methane and nitrous oxide were higher than at any time in the last 800,000 years.

Global surface temperature has increased faster since 1970 than in any other 50-year period over a least the last 2,000 years. For example, temperatures during the most recent decade (2011–2020) exceed those of the most recent multi-century warm period, around 6,500 years ago, the report indicates.

Meanwhile, global mean sea level has risen faster since 1900 than over any preceding century in at least the last 3,000 years.

The document shows that emissions of greenhouse gases from human activities are responsible for approximately 1.1°C of warming between 1850-1900, and finds that averaged over the next 20 years, global temperature is expected to reach or exceed 1.5°C of heating as soon as 2030. It notes that 20-40 percent of the global population lives in regions that have already experienced warming of more than 1.5°C in at least one season.

Basically, the report shows that every fraction of a degree of warming matters. Continued rising temperatures will exact a huge toll on people, natural ecosystems and the economy.

The UN Secretary-General António Guterres said the Working Group's report was nothing less than "a code red for humanity. The alarm bells are deafening, and the evidence is irrefutable." He noted that the internationally-agreed threshold of 1.5 degrees above pre-industrial levels of global heating was "perilously close. We are at imminent risk of hitting 1.5 degrees in the near term. The only way to prevent exceeding this threshold, is by urgently stepping up our efforts, and pursuing the most ambitious path.” In this short reaction to the report, the UN chief said that the solutions were clear: "Inclusive and green economies, prosperity, cleaner air and better health are possible for all, if we respond to this crisis with solidarity and courage", he states.

Shortcomings

A worrying aspect of this IPCC Report is how no one seems to be mentioning how not all humans are equally culpable in the climate chaos outlined in the assessment. Guterres does take aim at the fossil fuel industry, but more should be said and done about how these companies, as well as wealthier countries in general, are some of the principal culprits and, ultimately, keys to stopping further destruction.

A major report released in 2017 attributed 70% of the world’s greenhouse gas emissions over the previous two decades to just 100 fossil fuel producers. An update last year outlined the top 20 fossil fuel firms behind a third of emissions.

A recent international study from the University of Leeds calculated that, across 86 countries, the richest 10% of people consume around 20 times more energy than the poorest 10%. A big portion of this heightened consumption by wealthier people is through transport, the study found: flights, holidays and big cars driven long distances.

The world’s richest countries have released the vast majority of emissions, and many continue to emit many times more than poorer ones. The US has emitted far more CO2 than any other country: a quarter of all emissions since 1751 have occurred there. Despite China’s huge rise in emissions over the past decade, emissions per person still sit at less than half those of the US, while the one billion people living in Sub-Saharan Africa each emit one-twentieth of the average person in the US.

These are all facts that need to be taken into consideration and that cannot be isolated from the “objective” claims made about the current climate changes that are occurring. The myth of scientific neutrality has to be challenged. Its limitations? The covering up of key causes and insulation of powerful systems from critical scrutiny. According to this Public Autonomy article, “[i]n the crucial, most widely read version of the Report, the 41-page “Summary for Policymakers,” the word “human” appears 79 times; by contrast, the word “capitalism” occurs 0 times, the word “colonialism” occurs 0 times, the word “corporation” occurs 0 times, the word “business” occurs 0 times, the word “money” occurs 0 times, and the expression “fossil fuel” (or even just “fuel”) occurs 0 times.

(…) We should welcome the Report, as an important source of scientific insight; but we should also view it critically, as an ideological device that in crucial ways obscures the systemic roots of climate change and therefore also obscures the need for a fierce struggle of working-class movements, including the crucial leadership of Indigenous peoples, against capitalism and the states that protect it.”

Viewed from this perspective, the IPCC Report seems to barely serve as a tool to challenge “business as usual.” Nevertheless, if we take a look at how the past IPCC reports were received, we may find a reason for hope regarding its transformational potential.

Significance

In 1990, the First IPCC Assessment Report (FAR) underlined the importance of climate change as a challenge with global consequences and requiring international cooperation. It played a decisive role in the creation of the UNFCCC, a key international treaty to reduce global warming and cope with the consequences of climate change.

The Second Assessment Report (SAR) (1995) provided important material for governments to draw from in the run-up to adoption of the Kyoto Protocol in 1997. The Third Assessment Report (TAR) (2001) focused attention on the impacts of climate change and the need for adaptation. The Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) (2007) laid the ground work for a post-Kyoto agreement, focusing on limiting warming to 2°C. The Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) was finalized between 2013 and 2014 and provided the scientific input into the Paris Agreement.

The IPCC is currently in its Sixth Assessment cycle where it is preparing three Special Reports, a Methodology Report and the Sixth Assessment Report, the latter having been the one published earlier this month.

These reports have been important tools to catalyze political debate and action at a macro-institutional level, and hopefully, the later report will have the same effect. It’s been released less than months before the UK hosts the 26th UN Climate Change Conference of the Parties (COP26) which will bring together leaders from across the world to discuss future climate change action. In this moment, the report amounts to an existential choice for policymakers. Act now in the last years we have left and we have a shot at actually holding warming to 1.5 degrees and averting the worst of climate change.

Article by Helena Leonardo

Helena is a freelance educator and writer, trained in the fields of sociology and cultural studies. Her current mission is to take part in the advancement of the regenerative development paradigm through theoretical, empirical and active investigation on the transformational potential of intersectional ecofeminism, cooperativism, community-building and the ecovillage movement.

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